Inferring spatial source of disease outbreaks using maximum entropy.

Mathematical modeling of disease outbreaks can infer the future trajectory of an epidemic, allowing for making more informed policy decisions. Another task is inferring the origin of a disease, which is relatively difficult with current mathematical models. Such frameworks, across varying levels of complexity, are typically sensitive to input data on epidemic parameters, case counts, and mortality rates, which are generally noisy and incomplete. To alleviate these limitations, we propose a maximum entropy framework that fits epidemiological models, provides calibrated infection origin probabilities, and is robust to noise due to a prior belief model. Maximum entropy is agnostic to the parameters or model structure used and allows for flexible use when faced with sparse data conditions and incomplete knowledge in the dynamical phase of disease-spread, providing for more reliable modeling at early stages of outbreaks. We evaluate the performance of our model by predicting future disease trajectories based on simulated epidemiological data in synthetic graph networks and the real mobility network of New York State. In addition, unlike existing approaches, we demonstrate that the method can be used to infer the origin of the outbreak with accurate confidence. Indeed, despite the prevalent belief on the feasibility of contact-tracing being limited to the initial stages of an outbreak, we report the possibility of reconstructing early disease dynamics, including the epidemic seed, at advanced stages.

Influence of Aerosol Delivered BCG Vaccination on Immunological and Disease Parameters Following SARS-CoV-2 Challenge in Rhesus Macaques

The tuberculosis vaccine, Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG), also affords protection against non-tuberculous diseases attributable to heterologous immune mechanisms such as trained innate immunity, activation of non-conventional T-cells, and cross-reactive adaptive immunity. Aerosol vaccine delivery can target immune responses toward the primary site of infection for a respiratory pathogen. Therefore, we hypothesised that aerosol delivery of BCG would enhance cross-protective action against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and be a deployable intervention against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Immune parameters were monitored in vaccinated and unvaccinated rhesus macaques for 28 days following aerosol BCG vaccination. High-dose SARS-CoV-2 challenge was applied by intranasal and intrabronchial instillation and animals culled 6–8 days later for assessment of viral, disease, and immunological parameters. Mycobacteria-specific cell-mediated immune responses were detected following aerosol BCG vaccination, but SARS-CoV-2-specific cellular- and antibody-mediated immunity was only measured following challenge. Early secretion of cytokine and chemokine markers associated with the innate cellular and adaptive antiviral immune response was detected following SARS-CoV-2 challenge in vaccinated animals, at concentrations that exceeded titres measured in unvaccinated macaques. Classical CD14+ monocytes and Vδ2 γδ T-cells quantified by whole-blood immunophenotyping increased rapidly in vaccinated animals following SARS-CoV-2 challenge, indicating a priming of innate immune cells and non-conventional T-cell populations. However, viral RNA quantified in nasal and pharyngeal swabs, bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL), and tissue samples collected at necropsy was equivalent in vaccinated and unvaccinated animals, and in-life CT imaging and histopathology scoring applied to pulmonary tissue sections indicated that the disease induced by SARS-CoV-2 challenge was comparable between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. Hence, aerosol BCG vaccination did not induce, or enhance the induction of, SARS-CoV-2 cross-reactive adaptive cellular or humoral immunity, although an influence of BCG vaccination on the subsequent immune response to SARS-CoV-2 challenge was apparent in immune signatures indicative of trained innate immune mechanisms and primed unconventional T-cell populations. Nevertheless, aerosol BCG vaccination did not enhance the initial clearance of virus, nor reduce the occurrence of early disease pathology after high dose SARS-CoV-2 challenge. However, the heterologous immune mechanisms primed by BCG vaccination could contribute to the moderation of COVID-19 disease severity in more susceptible species following natural infection.

Cheap and Commonplace: Making the Case for BCG and γδ T Cells in COVID-19.

Antigen-specific vaccines developed for the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrate a remarkable achievement and are currently being used in high income countries with much success. However, new SARS-CoV-2 variants are threatening this success via mutations that lessen the efficacy of antigen-specific antibodies. One simple approach to assisting with this issue is focusing on strategies that build on the non-specific protection afforded by the innate immune response. The BCG vaccine has been shown to provide broad protection beyond tuberculosis disease, including against respiratory viruses, and ongoing studies are investigating its efficacy as a tool against SARS-CoV-2. Gamma delta (γδ) T cells, particularly the Vδ2 subtype, undergo rapid expansion after BCG vaccination due to MHC-independent mechanisms. Consequently, γδ T cells can produce diverse defenses against virally infected cells, including direct cytotoxicity, death receptor ligands, and pro-inflammatory cytokines. They can also assist in stimulating the adaptive immune system. BCG is affordable, commonplace and non-specific, and therefore could be a useful tool to initiate innate protection against new SARS-CoV-2 variants. However, considerations must also be made to BCG vaccine supply and the prioritization of countries where it is most needed to combat tuberculosis first and foremost.

ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 protection against SARS-CoV-2 in rhesus macaque and ferret challenge models.

Vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 are urgently required, but early development of vaccines against SARS-CoV-1 resulted in enhanced disease after vaccination. Careful assessment of this phenomena is warranted for vaccine development against SARS CoV-2. Here we report detailed immune profiling after ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) and subsequent high dose challenge in two animal models of SARS-CoV-2 mediated disease. We demonstrate in rhesus macaques the lung pathology caused by SARS-CoV-2 mediated pneumonia is reduced by prior vaccination with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 which induced neutralising antibody responses after a single intramuscular administration. In a second animal model, ferrets, ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 reduced both virus shedding and lung pathology. Antibody titre were boosted by a second dose. Data from these challenge models on the absence of enhanced disease and the detailed immune profiling, support the continued clinical evaluation of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19.

Comparison of rhesus and cynomolgus macaques as an infection model for COVID-19.

A novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, has been identified as the causative agent of the current COVID-19 pandemic. Animal models, and in particular non-human primates, are essential to understand the pathogenesis of emerging diseases and to assess the safety and efficacy of novel vaccines and therapeutics. Here, we show that SARS-CoV-2 replicates in the upper and lower respiratory tract and causes pulmonary lesions in both rhesus and cynomolgus macaques. Immune responses against SARS-CoV-2 are also similar in both species and equivalent to those reported in milder infections and convalescent human patients. This finding is reiterated by our transcriptional analysis of respiratory samples revealing the global response to infection. We describe a new method for lung histopathology scoring that will provide a metric to enable clearer decision making for this key endpoint. In contrast to prior publications, in which rhesus are accepted to be the preferred study species, we provide convincing evidence that both macaque species authentically represent mild to moderate forms of COVID-19 observed in the majority of the human population and both species should be used to evaluate the safety and efficacy of interventions against SARS-CoV-2. Importantly, accessing cynomolgus macaques will greatly alleviate the pressures on current rhesus stocks.